The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
158.8M positions66k vessels·76 engines
66 reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Rotterdam leads with 13.0h median wait and 491 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisSep 18, 2026·3 min read
GNSS Spoof Risk Scoring Went Quiet on August 17. 585 Events Later, It Still Hasn't.
Overwatch has logged 585 GNSS spoof dark events since a risk-tier scoring break on August 17 — only 2 have been scored, and 60% cluster in the Singapore Strait....
90window days45.3pct with tier525with risk tier4ever adjudicated
DARK-EVENTSGNSS-SPOOFRISK-TIERSINGAPORE-STRAITKINEMATIC-ANOMALYCOMPLIANCE-QUEUEAIS-OPACITY
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🔍Analysis
443 Baltimore Vessel Visits Carry a "High Confidence" Cargo Estimate. 296 of Them Are Zero.
443 of Baltimore's 900 vessel visits in 90 days carry a "high confidence" hydrostatic cargo estimate. 296 of them, two-thirds, are exactly zero — the same confidence tier covers a measurement gap and a 50,000-ton cargo exchange.
Sep 11, 2026·3 min
CARGO-ESTIMATIONHYDROSTATIC-CARGO
🔍Analysis
Persian Gulf Interior Runs the Highest-Confidence Approach Encounters in the Rule 17 Dataset. Its Deviation Rate Is a Third of Rotterdam's.
A 90-day cut of 22,838 give-way encounters averages 0.778 confidence, the cleanest read of any approach zone in the dataset. The deviation rate is 13.8% — Rotterdam's is 57.7%.
Sep 8, 2026·4 min
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Archive
43,249 ISM Manager Assignments. Two-Thirds of the Tracked Fleet. Zero Have Ever Closed.
TEMPORAL-EDGESISM-MANAGER
Sep 8, 20261,333 Vessel Renames Since April. Zero Have Ever Been Flagged as Obfuscation.
RENAMED-TOTEMPORAL-GRAPH
Sep 4, 202661,158 AIS Dark-Manipulation Alerts in 90 Days Touch 20,690 Vessels. The Adjudication Field Has Never Been Set — Not Once, Across All 134,967 Motif Alerts.
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Aug 28, 20261,824 Nav-Status Dark Events in 90 Days. Critical-Tier Gaps Average 20.9 Hours — Shorter Than Medium-Tier's 35.1. The Anomaly Score Barely Moves.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
Aug 21, 2026AIS Position Spoofing Alerts Jumped from 72 a Week to 6,338 in Four Weeks. Every One Filed at Maximum Confidence. None Has Been Reviewed.
AIS-MANIPULATION-SPOOFMOTIF-ALERTS
Aug 19, 2026The Top 1% of Global Vessel-Traffic Hexagons Carry 45.8% of All AIS Positions. Eleven of the Busiest Fifteen Sit Within One Estuary Complex on the Dutch and Belgian Coast.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Aug 19, 2026Grain Is 52.2% of All Cargo Calls in Overwatch. Its Low-Confidence Rate Is 5.4x Every Other Commodity Combined.
PROBABLE-COMMODITYCOMMODITY-CLASSIFICATION
Aug 14, 2026864 Vessel Identity Reassignments Since April. Every One Flagged as Obfuscation. None Has Closed.
MMSI-CHANGEDTEMPORAL-GRAPH
Aug 12, 2026Anchorages Have the Highest Rule 17 Deviation Rate of Any Encounter Context — 52.8%, Ahead of Open Sea's 48.2%.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Aug 12, 2026Ship-to-Ship Transfer Filed 35,377 Max-Confidence Alerts in 90 Days. It Has Not Fired Once in the Last 26.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Aug 7, 202637,656 Vessels Have One Flag Assignment Each. None Has Ever Closed. OWNED_BY Records Close at 8.3%. The Flag-State Layer Has No History.
FLAGGED-ASTEMPORAL-GRAPH
Aug 7, 202684.8% of Vessel Cargo Estimates Are Zero. The Method That Produces Zero for Every Single Visit Has a Higher Confidence Score Than the Method That Reads Draft Data.
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Jul 31, 2026473 Shell Company Hops. None Have Ever Closed. Commercial Management Has 12,458 Active Edges and Has Closed Zero.
SHELL-HOPTEMPORAL-GRAPH
Jul 24, 20261,011 Fraudulent Documentation Alerts in 33 Days. Every One at Maximum Confidence. Zero Reviewed.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 21, 202615,942 Impossible Kinematics Events in 90 Days. Low-Risk Gaps Average 104.8 Hours. High-Risk Gaps Average 17.6 Hours. The Anomaly Score Is Nearly Identical.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
Jul 21, 2026180,310 Solo Dark Events in 90 Days. The Multi-Vessel Coordination Layer Found 7 Clusters. None Were Critical.
DARK-EVENTSMULTI-VESSEL
Jul 17, 202641% of Global AIS Positions Come From "Other." That Category Has No Informative Classification. It Also Has the Most Positions.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jul 14, 2026Recent Departures
ZJE OCEAN 1Gladstone · coal
115ktMYNYSingapore · grain
60ktSYLVIARouen · grain
18ktOMIROS LNew Orleans · grain
106ktGRETKE OLDENDORFFNorfolk · grain
50ktGREAT OCEANNewcastle · coal
46kt