The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
132.3M positions64k vessels·76 engines
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Constanța leads with 103.5h median wait and 88 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisAug 7, 2026·3 min read
Ship-to-Ship Transfer Filed 35,377 Max-Confidence Alerts in 90 Days. It Has Not Fired Once in the Last 26.
Ship-to-Ship Transfer is the motif detector that flags at-sea cargo handoffs between two vessels — the maneuver that lets cargo change custody without a port call, a document trail, or a customs stamp. Over the trailing 90 days it filed 35,377 alerts. Every one of them landed at ...
ship_to_ship_transfermotif14849sts 45d32211dark 45d17793spoof 45d
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTSAIS-OPACITYCOMPLIANCE-QUEUEMOTIF-SILENCE
Read article
🔍Analysis
37,656 Vessels Have One Flag Assignment Each. None Has Ever Closed. OWNED_BY Records Close at 8.3%. The Flag-State Layer Has No History.
37,656 vessels. One flag record each. Zero closures. OWNED_BY closes at 8.3%. The flag-state layer has never recorded a reflagging event.
Aug 7, 2026·4 min
FLAGGED-ASTEMPORAL-GRAPH
🔍Analysis
84.8% of Vessel Cargo Estimates Are Zero. The Method That Produces Zero for Every Single Visit Has a Higher Confidence Score Than the Method That Reads Draft Data.
96.5% coverage masks an 84.8% zero rate. The confidence score assigned to methods that always return zero is higher than the score for the method that reads draft data.
Jul 31, 2026·4 min
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Archive
473 Shell Company Hops. None Have Ever Closed. Commercial Management Has 12,458 Active Edges and Has Closed Zero.
SHELL-HOPTEMPORAL-GRAPH
Jul 24, 202615,942 Impossible Kinematics Events in 90 Days. Low-Risk Gaps Average 104.8 Hours. High-Risk Gaps Average 17.6 Hours. The Anomaly Score Is Nearly Identical.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
Jul 21, 20261,011 Fraudulent Documentation Alerts in 33 Days. Every One at Maximum Confidence. Zero Reviewed.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 21, 2026180,310 Solo Dark Events in 90 Days. The Multi-Vessel Coordination Layer Found 7 Clusters. None Were Critical.
DARK-EVENTSMULTI-VESSEL
Jul 17, 202641% of Global AIS Positions Come From "Other." That Category Has No Informative Classification. It Also Has the Most Positions.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jul 14, 2026246,754 Open-Sea Give-Way Inaction Encounters in 90 Days. 51% End in Rule 17 Deviation. No One Is Watching This Context.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jul 14, 2026Ship-to-Ship Transfer Has Retaken the 30-Day Lead. 95.5% of Dark Manipulation Alerts Are Sub-Max Confidence. The Combined Queue Is 76,315 Alerts With Zero Reviews.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 10, 2026Extremis Is the Dominant Rule 17 Path. Every One of the 669,182 Closed Within 185 Meters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTEREXTREMIS-TRIGGER
Jul 7, 2026AIS Position Spoofing Went Silent 53 Days Ago. Dark Manipulation Filed 27,318 Alerts in the Same Month.
AIS-MANIPULATION-SPOOFAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 7, 2026The Vessel Ownership Layer Has Been Frozen for 52 Days. The 843 Vessels With Obfuscated Identity Edges Don't Show Up Anywhere Else in the Graph.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHIDENTITY-OBFUSCATION
Jul 3, 2026A 5th Motif Class Entered the Queue at Maximum Confidence. The Other 4 Have Produced 66,973 Alerts in 88 Days. Zero Have Been Reviewed.
DESTINATION-LAUNDERINGMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 3, 2026Gulf Anchorage Rings Produce 61% of Dark Events. They Represent 28% of Tracked Vessel-Hours.
DARK-EVENTSGULF-ANCHORAGE
Jun 26, 2026AIS_manipulation_dark Overtook STS Three Weeks Ago. 26,246 Alerts. Zero Acknowledged.
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 23, 2026124,170 Unsubtyped Dark Events. Subtype Classifiers Have Been Silent Since May 20. 2,066 of Them Are Critical.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-FREEZE
Jun 23, 2026A New Motif Fired for the First Time Yesterday. 55 High-Severity Alerts, Zero Acknowledged, Entering a 44,573-Deep Queue.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 19, 2026The Vessel Ownership Graph Has Produced Zero New Records in 34 Days. Every Active Temporal Edge Is Now an Obfuscation Event.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHOWNERSHIP-FREEZE
Jun 16, 2026Give-Way Inaction in Approach Channels Produces 0.251nm Average CPA — the Tightest Geometry in 1.97 Million Encounters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 16, 202663% of Nighttime Vessel-Hours Concentrate in 8% of H3 Cells. They Are Offshore Anchorage Rings, Not Port Approaches.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jun 12, 202683.3% Coverage Is Not 83.3% Accuracy: Only 1.24% of Vessel Visits Use a Draft-Survey-Derived Cargo Estimate
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Jun 9, 2026Anchorage Encounters Produce Rule 17 Deviations at a Higher Rate Than Approach Channels. 1.9 Million Encounters Across Three Contexts.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Jun 9, 2026Rule 17 Stand-On Vessel Class: Tankers Are Named in 31% of Extremis Events and Represent 22% of the Tracked Fleet
RULE17STAND-ON-VESSEL
Jun 5, 202671,663 Approach Channel Encounters Ended With Give-Way Failure. Average CPA: 0.247nm — the Closest of Any Context in the Dataset.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 2, 20264,361 STS Transfer Alerts in 45 Days. Zero Acknowledged. Ship-to-Ship Transfer Is Now the Dominant Behavioral Motif.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 2, 20268,400 Dark Events in 45 Days. The Nav Status at Gap-Start Cuts the Actionable Queue by 14%.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
May 29, 20262,894 Vessel Loitering Events in 45 Days. Two Reached High Risk. Context Determines the Classification.
LOITERING-EVENTSRISK-TIER
May 26, 2026Norfolk Bulk Carriers Wait 127 Hours. Houston Median Is 9. One Statistic Contains Both Facts.
PORT-CONGESTIONBULK-CARRIER
May 26, 2026Every vessel page now carries an ownership dossier
VESSEL-INTELLIGENCECORPORATE-IDENTITY
May 22, 202697% of Dark Events Get No Subtype. The 3% That Do Run 8x Longer.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-TAXONOMY
May 22, 20262,607 Vessels Reappeared at Physically Impossible Locations in 30 Days. The Subtype Is Called impossible_kinematics.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
May 19, 2026Mexico Leads US Grain Export Events at 129. China Receives 43. China's Per-Event Volume Is 56% Higher. The Difference Is Vessel Class.
GRAIN-DESTINATIONBULK-CARGO
May 19, 20265.3% of the Vessel Graph Is Mutation Edges. Shell Hops Average 13-Day Tenure. That Asymmetry Is the Screening Problem.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHRELATION-TYPE
May 15, 20264,433 COLREGS Encounters, Zero Analyst Reviews. Head-On Events Need 23.8 Degrees and Carry the Least Classifier Certainty.
COLREGS-ENCOUNTERSCOMPLIANCE-DEFICIT
May 12, 2026Open Water Is Where Vessels Come Closest. 16.7% of Open-Sea Encounters Pass Within 0.1nm — 49% More Than Anchorage.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERCPA-GEOMETRY
May 12, 20266% of Active Hex Cells Account for 71% of Encounter Events. The Resolution-8 Density Distribution Breaks Most Anomaly Models.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
May 8, 20262,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.
GHOST-VESSELSSOLO-MANEUVERS
May 7, 202657% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.
CHOKEPOINT-TRANSITSSTRAIT-OF-HORMUZ
May 7, 20264,578 High-Severity Behavioral Motifs, Zero Acknowledged: AIS Manipulation Makes Up 42% of the Fleet Alert Stack
MOTIF-ALERTSAIS-MANIPULATION
May 5, 2026197 Shell Hops, 425 MMSI Changes, 383 Renames: The 1,005 Identity Mutation Events in 33 Days
VESSEL-IDENTITYSHELL-HOPS
May 5, 202647% of Vessel Visits Do Not Have Draft Data. The Cargo Estimate You Are Reading Is a Fallback.
HYDROSTATICCARGO-ESTIMATION
May 1, 2026Rule 17 in the Wild: 72,113 Handoffs, 75% Extremis, and What That Says About Who Is Actually Avoiding Collisions
RULE17COLREGS
May 1, 2026Port Dwell Distributions: Newcastle 2.8×, Houston 13.6×. The Tail Ratio Predicts Demurrage Risk.
DWELL-TIMELAYTIME-RISK
Apr 29, 2026Recalibrating Risk Tiers Surfaces 1,702 Dark Events; 66% Cluster in the Singapore Strait
RISK-TIER-RECALIBRATIONSINGAPORE-STRAIT
Apr 28, 20266.4% of AIS Pings Don't Say Where They're Going. The Rest Spell Houston Seven Different Ways.
DESTINATION-RELIABILITYDECLARED-VS-ACTUAL
Apr 28, 2026Singapore Strait Holds 65% Ship-to-Ship Share While Rotterdam Climbs to 59%: The STS Subtype Reads Differently From the Atlas
STS-TRANSFERSDARK-EVENTS
Apr 27, 2026Dark Events Across Eight Chokepoints: Every Port Has Its Own Gap-Duration Risk Curve
DARK-EVENTSCHOKEPOINT-ATLAS
Apr 24, 2026Draft-Survey Commodity Flow Estimates: 13.2M Tons at US Gulf, 2.4M Tons at Newcastle, and the Mississippi Spring Constraint
DRAFT-SURVEYCOMMODITY-FLOW
Apr 24, 2026Vessel Identity Risk: How Flag State, Class Rarity, Phantom Fleets, and Name Changes Each Contribute to the Same Sanctions Exposure
VESSEL-IDENTITYFLAG-STATE
Apr 24, 2026Vessel-Class Kinematic Signatures: Tanker Noise, Bulk Precision, and the 6× Gap Where Spoofing Hides
KINEMATIC-FINGERPRINTINGVESSEL-CLASS-ATLAS
Apr 24, 2026From Field to Port: How We Built Commodity Intelligence From Five Government APIs
COMMODITY INTELLIGENCEGRAIN FLOWS
Apr 10, 2026What Axiom Overwatch Is — and Who It's For
AXIOM-OVERWATCHMARITIME-INTELLIGENCE
Apr 9, 2026How We Turn AIS Signals into Maritime Intelligence
METHODOLOGYAIS-DATA
Apr 9, 2026Recent Departures
FURE SPEARRotterdam · petroleum
37ktSAMSKIP ENDEAVOURRotterdam · grain
29ktHL SINESSingapore · grain
24ktPAN ACACIASingapore · grain
22ktG FORCESingapore · unknown
12ktA2B COMFORTRotterdam · grain
22kt